Overpopulation and modern ethics: an update



Environmental degradation is one of the most threatening global challenges currently faced by humankind. Despite generally decreasing birth rates, the global population continues to grow in absolute terms, which is an unsustainable trajectory. Efficient solutions would require a revision of certain ethical clichés and acceptance of new principles, in particular, that no population group may obtain advantages because of a faster growth. In countries with sufficient food and water resources, the birth rate may be higher than in regions where people are consuming desalinated water and foodstuff acquired through foreign aid. An international authority could issue evidence-based recommendations. In the past, overpopulation has been reduced by homicide, epidemics and starvation. Today, the possibility exists of applying humane, scientifically based methods, consciously choosing between birth rate restriction and mortality rise. Preventable life shortening may be interpreted as homicide. Conversely, birth rate restriction is ethically neutral. But Homo sapiens is an aggressive, warring species, and the military needs young people. The comparatively low life expectancy in Russia is a strategic advantage as less healthcare investments and pensions are needed. International tensions and conflicts are among reasons to boost childbearing. Large, non-threatening projects could be introduced to improve the quality of life: irrigation systems, hydroelectric, nuclear and other energy sources as an alternative to fossil fuels. Such projects would create many jobs, being a reasonable alternative to excessive military spending. For this, not only durable peace but also mutual trust is required.

Keywords: demography, population, migrations, environment, nuclear energy.

Introduction

This study was started 15 years ago (Jargin 2009). The present paper is an update. Environmental degradation is one of the most threatening global challenges faced by humanity (Rahman et al. 2024). Despite generally decreasing birth rates, the global population continues to grow, and there is no sign of a decrease sufficient to achieve sustainable numbers. Humanity is expected to use >200 % of the global biocapacity (croplands, forests) by 2050: clearly an unsustainable trajectory. Environmental degradation is proportional to the number of humans (Gregus & Guillebaud 2020). Efficient solutions would require a revision of some stereotypes and an application of new principles, namely that no population group on a national or international scale may achieve advantages through faster growth, even if such caveat flew in the face of democracy. In view of global overpopulation, large families should live in more crowded conditions. Acceptance of this principle could provide a basis for international understanding and trust. Without procreative competition, different peoples would be more likely to live in peace. During the last century, populations in less industrialized countries grew faster than those in more developed ones (Our World in Data 2021). The forthcoming industrialization of regions formerly regarded as developing is significant due to their less efficient environmental conservation and the vast scale of the process, proportional to the sizes of the populations involved.

In the past, overpopulation growth has been offset by homicide, epidemics and starvation. Today, there is probably the last chance to apply humane methods, consciously choosing between birth rate restriction and rising mortality. It is widely believed that the answer to existing problems is a reduction in human numbers. Without a serious international attempt to bring the world population back to sustainability, Earth will become increasingly depleted of biological resources (Van Niekerk 2008).

Aging societies cause economic challenges, but they also bring economic and environmental benefits (Götmark et al. 2018). An objection to life extension is that it would contribute to overpopulation (Davoudpour & Davis 2022). Of note, preventable life shortening can be regarded as homicide. On the contrary, birth rate restriction is ethically neutral. Militarists, however, see it the other way around, as they need young people. The comparatively low life expectancy in Russia, especially among men, is a strategic advantage as fewer pensions are needed. Cases are known when parricide and elder abuse remained without consequences (Jargin 2013).

Surgical sterilization is the most reliable method of birth control; it was applied in India in the 1970s, but later these measures have been rolled back. India is the most populous country in the world today. China had the largest population for many decades, with a fertility rate as high as 6.0 before 1970. This rate had decreased to 1.5–1.7 by the late 1990s. The one child policy was replaced by two child from 2015. However, the total fertility rate continued to fall, reaching 1.3 by 2020. Additional pro-natalist measures have been introduced in 2021 (Li et al. 2024). South Asia is amongst the regions with the highest population densities (Rahman et al. 2024). Considerable overpopulation is observed in Africa. Uganda is projected to triple by 2050 to more than 100 million inhabitants, which will be accompanied by deforestation and soil erosion (Coombes 2009). Nigeria’s current (2024) population is estimated to be 233 million, and is expected to exceed 400 million by the end of 2050 (World Population Review). The tenfold increase in Ethiopia during the last century (Nyssen et al. 2009) went along with unemployment and food shortage. In 2020, up to 264.2 million people (24.1 % of the population) in sub-Saharan Africa were undernourished. With the population likely to grow in the near future, these statistics have the potential to increase (John-Joy Owolade et al. 2022). As for more developed countries, their populations continue to grow thanks to immigration. South Africa is overpopulated, in need of water desalination, and still receiving immigrants. The country’s sociopolitical circumstances suggest that it will become increasingly dependent on foreign aid, and increasingly unstable, in the decades ahead. It has recently been described as a ‘failed state’ (Wierzycka 2023).

Countries receiving immigrants decide whom they take and whom not, although in many cases immigrants enter and remain in the countries illegally. In countries with relatively stable regimes, sterilization might be considered as a requirement for work permits and/or permanent residence. Male sterilization (vasectomy) is a simple and harmless procedure. Caesarean section is an occasion to provide permanent contraception (tubal ligation) without additional trauma (Verkuyl 2016). Increased use of cesarean tubal ligation would be especially favorable for overpopulated regions (Jargin 2018). Cesarean section on maternal request should be available in the absence of contraindications for attempting vaginal delivery. This pertains also to Russia, where cesarean section is usually not performed on maternal request. Certainly, sterilization can be seen as a violation of the bodily integrity. The same, however, can be said of sexual and reproductive coercion (RC) committed for migration/accommodation purposes or to spread a certain genotype with geopolitical motives (discussed below). It can be argued that sterilization does not prevent sexually transmitted diseases; however, such diseases may be regarded as self-inflicted in consequence of negligent or immoral behavior, thus being in a sense a private matter. When children appear, it ceases to be a private matter, as the number of children in a family is of public concern today, as is the size and density of the population. Bringing a new individual into the world leaves fewer resources for those who already need them, and in many cases have them in suboptimal or inadequate amounts (Stanbury 2024). Finally, there cannot be legitimate religious objections against contraception and abortions because these methods are not mentioned in sacred texts.

Methods

This article is a narrative review of Russian-language and international literature on overpopulation and related topics. A search of international literature was performed using PubMed and other databases. Russian-language professional publications were searched on the Internet, in libraries and the electronic database eLIBRARY.RU. Data from the literature have been reviewed and synthesized on the basis of the authors’ observations since the 1960s.

Results

In the former Soviet Union (SU), the fertility rate varied from 3.8 in Tajikistan to 1.2 in Ukraine and 1.5 in the Russian Federation (RF), which includes the Caucasus and other regions with high fertility (Shcherbakova 2023). Within the RF, maximal population increase has been recorded in Ingushetia, Chechnya, Tuva and Dagestan; while the population is decreasing most rapidly in Tver, Tula, Pskov, Leningrad and Novgorod provinces (Rybakovsky 2023). Emigration of ethnic Russians from the Caucasus and Central Asia started several decades ago, having increased after the dissolution of the SU. At the same time, indigenous people from these regions have been migrating to ethnically Russian territories. The distances extend from the Caucasus and Middle Asia to Moscow, St. Petersburg, Siberia and the Far East (Pobedonostseva et al. 1998). The highest emigration rate has been from North Ossetia-Alania (Kuchmasova 2018). The Armenian minority is growing on the Caucasian Riviera, where they have participated in privatization and building of houses. In Stavropol, Krasnodar and Rostov provinces, percentages of indigenous Caucasians are growing. Motives for emigration include shortage of land, overcrowding and economic factors (Kurbanova 2012). At the same time, the North Caucasus receives considerable federal funding (Litvinov et al. 2018; Tavbulatova et al. 2021).

Since the 1990s, immigration to the Far East has occurred from Central Asia, China, Korea and Vietnam, compensating for departures of ethnic Russians. Analysts forecast that by mid-21st century there will be 7–10 million Chinese in Russia (Trenin 1999). Population growth in the Far East has been maximal in Buryatia and Yakutia due to higher birth rates of the indigenous peoples (Simagin and Murtuzalieva 2020). In Siberia there are many homeless citizens, referred to as “Beach”, most of them of Slavic origin. This word is said to be derived from English (hence the spelling) and previously meant a sailor unable to find employment because of drunkenness or other circumstances. During the anti-alcohol campaign (1985–1989), many of them consumed alcohol-containing perfumery and industrial fluids, e.g. window-cleaner. Considering the extent of window cleaner sales in certain areas of Siberia, it appears to have been knowingly tolerated by the authorities. In Siberian cities homeless people could be seen in the streets in winter. Society should take better care of them (Jargin 2017). Unfortunately this is difficult where population pressures are excessive, and increasing.

For prevention of conflict, minorities should not grow faster than the titular ethnic group of a country. This is understood in many Jewish families. However, in the orthodox milieu their birth rate remains relatively high. In some cities, such as New York, their share is considerable. After World War II, people of Jewish descent were able to lead normal lives almost everywhere. Migration to populated territory with a shortage of water and energy resources occurred, resulting in increased competition for lebensraum. Such arguments as “historical patrimony” (Lesh 1989) are not necessarily acceptable to other peoples. Both sides of the Middle East conflict have applied terrorism (Lynn 2019). State violence is generally more destructive than that carried out by non-state actors (Silke 2019).

In the 1860s, the number of Jews in Palestine was approximately 14,000 or 4 % of the total population of 350,000 (Lynn 2019). From 1948 to 2002 the population of Israel increased from 806,000 to 6.3 million, or 9.8 million if Palestine territories are included (Lahau & Arian 2005). Combined with immigration, the population of the arid land, largely dependent on foreign aid and water desalination, is likely to reach 16 million by mid-century. Despite popular beliefs, the fertility rate of Israeli and Palestinian women is approximately equal (3.1): higher than in Iran (1.8), Tunisia (2.0) and Saudi Arabia (2.1); being the highest in developed parts of the world (Bricker & Ibbitson 2020). In light of the Ukraine conflict, the double standards should be stressed: no sanctions were imposed against Israel for comparable military actions. On the contrary, financial and technical aid was provided.

Apparently, certain spheres on both sides of the Middle East conflict have cooperated in receiving foreign aid: some get it from the West, others from oil-producing countries. The Camp David Accords were an instrument for obtaining foreign aid. Prior to the Ukraine war, Israel was the largest cumulative recipient of U. S. aid since World War II (Quandt 1988; Sharp 2018). In 2003, about two-thirds of the Palestinian economy was dependent on foreign aid (Jaeger & Tophoven 2011). Besides, both Israel and the Palestinian territories receive financial help from Germany. The Middle East imports more than half of its consumed food. The land and water constraints will continue to tighten (Lybbert & Morgan 2013). Agriculture in conditions of insufficient water supply is economically and ecologically unfavorable as fossil fuels are burnt for desalination. Water consumption and pollution in Palestine exceeds natural replenishment (OECD 2011), and it is expected that the gap between water supply and demand will widen (Jaeger & Tophoven 2011). The energy for desalination could be produced by nuclear power plants (NPPs), but durable peace is needed because NPPs are potential targets. There are no alternatives to nuclear energy today (Jargin 2023). In the long run, non-renewable fossil fuels will become more expensive, facilitating energy-based blackmailing (Karamitsios 2022), overpopulation in fossil fuel-producing regions and poverty elsewhere. NPPs have come back onto the agenda due to concerns about increasing energy demand and climate change. Well-run NPPs pose less risk than fossil fuel power stations. Health burdens are maximal for power stations based on coal and oil, smaller with natural gas and much lower for the NPPs. The same ranking applies also to greenhouse gas emissions and thus probably to climate change. It is to be hoped that nuclear fission will be replaced in the future by fusion, which is intrinsically safer. Fusion should offer a source of safe, clean power generation with a plentiful supply of raw materials (Duffy 2010; Markandya & Wilkinson 2007; Smith & Cowley 2010). Durable peace and international cooperation are needed for this and other large-scale projects, but increasing population densities lead to increased complexity and reduced stability. Notwithstanding the prospects of cheaper and cleaner energy, many analysts believe there is no alternative to a major fall in regional and global populations.

Social progress is assumed to go along with improvements of morals, but migrations confound this process. Fictive, temporary marriages and RC are used to spread certain genotypes and/or to cement marriages contracted to obtain a residence permit or accommodation (Arkhangelsky et al. 2019). This is a probable cause of increased birthrates immediately after immigration (Anderson 2004). RC can involve physical, sexual, financial or psychological abuse (Tarzia & McKenzie 2024). Reportedly, about 70 % of sexual violence cases in Moscow are committed by immigrants from Central Asia; some other ethnic groups are also active in this field. About 75 % of rapes in Moscow province were perpetrated by migrants (Strauning 2019). The sexual violence may be conditioned by ethnic, economic or social conflicts (Stavrou 2013).

Violence against women is sometimes perpetrated or condoned by the state (García-Moreno & Stöckl 2013). In 2017 an amendment was signed into law in Russia decriminalizing some forms of domestic violence. Although RC research focused on male control of a female’s reproductive autonomy, RC can be perpetrated by other agents such as family members and institutions (Saldanha et al. 2023), including the state. Governmental policies aimed at fertility elevation potentially disregard the reproductive rights of women. Some clerical functionaries engage in moralizing, opposition to abortions, sex education and birth control, depicting childbearing as a duty. The government joins forces with religious figures in order to curtail women’s rights, including their sexual and reproductive autonomy (Skaff 2013). Popular TV series depict unexpected pregnancies both in and out of wedlock as natural and unavoidable while contraception is hardly ever mentioned. The risks associated with abortions and contraception are invented or exaggerated by some literature and mass media. Obviously, propaganda follows governmental policies aimed at birth rate elevation.

In societies accepting the rape myth, sexual violence is seen as a method of acquiring wives (Renzetti et al. 2012; Russell 1990). The fact that some victims married their rapists was erroneously seen as an indication that women enjoy it; in fact, RC is associated with unfavorable health outcomes (Russell 1990; Sheeran et al. 2024). In this connection, battered woman syndrome and learned helplessness must be timeously recognized (Grace 2016; Tolmie et al. 2018). Sexual and reproductive coercion is not always recognized as such by victims. Intimidation and shame can prevent a woman from describing certain acts as coercion (García-Moreno & Stöckl 2013; Grace 2016). The maltreatment of women is under-reported, especially in less open societies. Denunciation of illegal and immoral acts has been unusual in the former SU, especially if committed by individuals belonging to the privileged milieu. Boys are taught sexual coercion within families in certain traditional settings: experience with relatives is not unusual (Meiselman 1978). It was estimated that 49 % of the “child perpetrators” had been sexually abused prior to their own abusive behaviors (Johnson 1988). Studies indicate a link between child maltreatment, including incest, and sexual crime committed by victims in their later life (Johnson 1988; Burgess et al. 1988). Males imprisoned for sexual molesting have themselves often been molested in their childhood. A similar pattern has been suggested for intergenerational incest (Meiselman 1978). A broad range of tactics is used by perpetrators: seduction and persuasion, alcohol and drugs, intimidation and violence, blackmail and financial pressure (Tarzia & McKenzie 2024), as well as deceit — including concealment of genetic diseases.

Among others, the propensity for migrations and vagabondage is associated with certain genetic and/or ethnic characteristics. In particular, migration may be desirable for people with abnormalities because behavioral and other deviations are less conspicuous abroad as the person is not typical just because he or she comes from another country. In a foreign environment, persons with abnormalities may be at least temporarily devoid of stigma (Evans-Lacko et al. 2012; Makowski & von dem Knesebeck 2017). ‘The grass is greener on the other side of the fence’ — not for everybody but for some individuals for certain reasons. Among the causes may be inherited features and/or affiliation with ethnic minorities. Another demographic problem, the gender imbalance caused by migrations, sex-selective abortions or female neonaticide, has been discussed elsewhere (Jargin 2018; 2021). The growing excess of males contributes to their marginalization, antisocial behavior as well as to militarism and international conflicts. It comes as no surprise that areas with high birth rates and unemployment tend to be in turmoil (Verkuyl 2016).

The conflict around Ukraine

The declared reason for the “special military operation” (SMO), which started in February 2022, was the anti-separatist activity of Ukraine in the Donbas since 2014. A majority of residents in the southern and eastern parts of Ukraine are Russian-speaking. Statistics on ethnic composition are potentially misleading because some residents registered themselves as Ukrainians for reasons of convenience but continued sharing their Russian identity and loyalty. A workable solution must be found by negotiations. The main thing is to avoid a large-scale war: consequences would be unfavorable for both sides, as was the case 100 years ago. Russia must make a realistic strategic choice because, over the long-term, it will have to compete more strongly against Asia than against Europe. This perspective has been called geopolitical destiny (Karamitsios 2022).

The conflict in Ukraine has impeded ecological policies in Europe and worldwide. Environmental protection and energy conservation are less popular in Russia than in other industrialized countries. The conflict between two major agricultural countries has negative impact on the global food supply. Military actions burn much fuel and release toxic chemicals (Filho et al. 2024; Verkuyl 2016). Birth control has been obfuscated by presumed national interests: the demographic growth was used to strengthen defenses. International tensions and conflicts are among reasons to boost childbearing. The topic of inter-ethnic differences in the birth rate and migrations is nowadays avoided.

Conclusion

Rapidly growing peoples should live in less spacious conditions. Consequences of gender imbalance must be borne by populations with a male predominance due to immigration and/or sex-selective abortions. Recognition of these principles should become a basis for international understanding and trust. In view of ecological and economic conditions, an optimal fertility level must be recommended for different regions. Who would determine the level? Primarily, and ideally, everyone for her- or himself. In a politically stable country with sufficient food and water resources, the birth rate of the titular nation may be higher than in regions where people drink desalinated water and eat foods acquired with foreign aid or exported fossil fuels. An international authority could issue evidence-based recommendations. Birth control has been obfuscated by presumed national interests; the demographic growth being supposed to strengthen the sovereignty and defenses. Smoldering international conflicts contribute to birth rate elevation in certain regions. In the past, overpopulation was counteracted by wars, pestilence and famine. Today, scientifically based humane methods can be used to regulate the population size, taking into account ecological and economical realities in different regions. Large projects could be accomplished to improve the quality of life: irrigation systems, nuclear and other energy sources as an alternative to fossil fuels. Hydroelectric power plants can be built on large rivers to produce hydrogen as a non-polluting energy carrier. Such projects would create many jobs, being a reasonable alternative to excessive military spending. Not only durable peace but also mutual trust is required for that. Unfortunately, trust may be abused. Confidence-building measures are thus of great importance. It appears inevitable that the global human population will become greatly reduced during the present century. How this happens may be to some extent within our control. It will not remain so indefinitely.

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