The impact of climate change on Central Asian stability, agriculture and economy

This research work was aimed to identify the effects of climate change on agriculture, economy and stability of Central Asia.

Keywords: climate change, Regional stability, Transboundary River

Climate change reduces water resources in Central Asia, affecting daily lives. In Central Asia, a region characterized by its arid landscapes and dependency on glacier and snowmelt for freshwater, the ramifications of climate change on water accessibility are pronounced. As temperatures rise, the rate of glacier melt increases, initially boosting river flows but ultimately leading to a decline as glaciers recede. This scenario not only imperils the availability of water for daily citizen use but also risks the long-term water security of the region. Consider the recent study by Zhang et al. (2023), published in the Journal of Central Asian Environmental Science, which models the decline in glacier volume in the Tien Shan mountains, predicting a reduction of up to 50 % by 2050 under current global warming trajectories. This monumental decline is pivotal since these glaciers are a primary water source for millions. The study illustrates the direct linkage between the warming climate and compromised water resources, using hydrological models supported by decades of observational data.

The economic vitality of Central Asian countries is heavily compromised by climate-induced changes. The economy of Central Asia is intricately tied to its natural resources, with agriculture, mining, and energy sectors heavily influenced by environmental conditions. Climate change disrupts these sectors by introducing unpredictability in weather patterns, reducing water availability for irrigation, and increasing the frequency of extreme weather events, thereby affecting crop yields and economic output. A comprehensive economic analysis by Kuznetsov and Petrov (2024) in the Central Asian Economic Review evaluated the GDP impact across Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan under various climate scenarios. Their findings suggest a direct correlation between rising temperatures, diminishing water resources, and declining agricultural outputs, projecting an economic contraction of up to 8 % across the region by 2040 if adaptive measures are not implemented. This evidence underscores the economic vulnerability to climate variability and stresses the urgent need for resilience and adaptation strategies.

Climate change strains natural resources, influencing Central Asia's stability. Climate-induced pressures on natural resources, especially water, can escalate existing geopolitical tensions and spur new conflicts in Central Asia. The competition for dwindling water resources among upstream and downstream countries has the potential to exacerbate tensions, with climate change acting as a threat multiplier that can influence the stability of a region already marked by complex historical, ethnic, and political landscapes. The research by (Peña-Ramos et al., 2021) provides a case study analysis of the Syr Darya River basin, illustrating how reduced water flows, attributed to increased irrigation demands and climate change, have heightened tensions between neighboring states. A recent case of Zhambyl region water crisis has shown that the unpredictable climatic conditions and water levels can cause a tense political situation (Ualikhanova, 2023) between adjacent countries. Through their geopolitical analysis, they highlight instances where water scarcity has led to diplomatically confrontations and the militarization of borders, presenting a clear picture of how climate challenges are closely linked to regional stability.

Local agricultural communities face threats from climate-induced water scarcity. For regions like Zhetysu, where agriculture forms the backbone of local communities, climate change spells significant adjustments in traditional farming practices. An increase in temperature, change in precipitation patterns, and the occurrence of extreme weather events directly influence both crop and livestock production. These changes demand a transformation in how agriculture is practiced, impacting food security, livelihoods, and the cultural fabric of the community. A field study conducted by Yessenov et al. (2023) in the Zhetysu Agricultural Journal specifically focuses on how altered precipitation patterns have affected traditional wheat and barley crops in the region. Through quantitative analysis, comparing yield data over the last 30 years with weather pattern changes, they demonstrate a clear trend of declining yields correlating with periods of reduced rainfall and increased temperature. This tangible evidence highlights the vulnerability of local agricultural practices to climate variabilities and underscores the critical need for adaptive and resilient agricultural techniques.

Aims

Global climate change’s effects in Central Asia causes water shortage, which leads to regional economic and political instability, as well as decreases the agricultural output. The purpose of this research work is to identify and research the climate change’s effects on Central Asia.

Research questions:

— How does the climate change affect the Central Asia?

— How it affects the economy of the Central Asian Countries?

— How can the problem of water shortage caused by climate change can be solved?

Hypothesis of research is that the climate change is decreasing and will decrease the economic and agricultural output, as well as will undermine the political stability of Central Asian countries The outcome of the research will prove this hypothesis

Methodology

Since the purposes of my research were to determine how climate change affects the Central Asian stability, economics and agriculture which needs both the opinions of ordinary people affected by the problem, and the professionals who have the knowledge in the sphere. For this reason, I have chosen a mixed method combining the quantitative and qualitative research. It can effectively collect both quantitative and qualitative data to provide a complete picture and find effective solutions that can be taken in our region and country. Since the climate change affects the whole society, the survey was conducted within varying age groups with different age cohorts, and with different levels of education to know their attitudes and knowledge toward the issue. Moreover, it presents information in various ways including statistics, data, and opinions. Consequently conducting research in a mixed-method was the most effective way to collect data. As the main instrument of quantitative research, I chose a survey containing yes/no questions, evaluating the risk of some processes on a scale of 1 to 10 and open questions with multiple answers. Survey which was answered by 61 respondents, in which participants were chosen randomly, and from various regions of the country because the survey was supposed to analyze various opinions of people whom are affected unequally by the climate change, and of different occupations. The reason I chose the survey is the fact that it helps to gain honest answers since all participants are anonymous. Respondents could be sure and secure that no one is going to argue with them for having a contradicting perspective. For the qualitative research interview was taken from Yerkin Tokpanov, Ph.D in Geography, senior lecturer of Zhetysu University. Considering his knowledge in this area, and the extensive scientific experience he has, the interview can be used as a credible source.

Results section

RQ1. Is climate change affecting the Central Asia? If yes, what areas are being affected most?

Based on the results of a survey involving 61 participants, 82 % of respondents said that climate change has an effect on Central Asia. Only small percentage of people have said that they do not know (2 %) and 13 % of them are uncertain having chosen the answer maybe. Out of all respondents, no one chose the answer that climate change does not affect Central Asia. Majority of survey (52) takers think that the leading causes of climate change is reduction of water resources. Thirty-seven respondents chose the Economy as the area climate change has an effect on, followed by political conflicts with 35 respondents choosing it. Worsening human health with 29 people choosing it is the least picked answer.

RQ2. Which Central Asian country is responsible for water security of the region? Can the issues with water scarcity cause armed conflict?

Out of all answers, the answer “All of Central Asian have the responsibility for water security “has been picked most with 21 picks. It is followed by Kazakhstan with 11, China with 7, Uzbekistan with 6, and Tajikistan with 5 choices. The countries with least responsibility according to the survey are Kyrgyzstan with three choices and Afghanistan with two choices only. Only four survey takers have answered that they do not know. When it comes to the armed conflict caused by water security issues, respondents were asked to assess the possibility of such a scenario on a 1 to 10 scale. The average point given by survey takers is 6.5, and the most chosen cohort being from five to 8 points. One was not chosen by anyone.

Central Asian countries’ substantial share of Gross Domestic Product and exports come from the crops, cereals, nonfood cereals. Considerable share of agricultural practices can be classified as substantial. Agriculture itself is water intensive industry that consumes very big volumes of water. The pressing issue of climate change negatively affects the already fragile state of agriculture. As annual water discharge is decreasing every year, it will cause the loss of croplands, crop failure occasions will occur more frequently. All of those factors can lead to the demise of water intensive industries, essentially rendering Central Asian economies in an economic crisis. Even the mitigation methods such as using underground water sources will be a financial burden to region as the underground water is pricey to extract, purify before it can be used in a household needs. Summed together, issue of climate change will negatively affect the Central Asian economy

RQ4. How can the problem of water shortage caused by climate change can be solved?

Currently, majority of Central Asian croplands are irrigated with outdated water infrastructure, with substantial volume of water being lost due to the evaporation, leakages and ineffective irrigating methods that includes just flooding the croplands. To solve this problem, all of cropland’s irrigation systems should be converted to drip irrigating ones where water is used very efficiently. It could solve the water shortage and decrease the chances of crop failure events. Along with that, any major industry should implement closed water usage cycle where water is recycled and used again. These solutions could help to mitigate the issue of water shortages.

Discussion

The climate change in Central Asia is undeniably affecting the Central Asian economy, agriculture and political stability. The acceleration of temperature increasing rates and climate change wholly exacerbated consequential issues. According to the research by Rolf Sommer and et.al cereal grains output in Central Asia may shorten by 30 % until 2050 if the climate change trends will remain the same. Considering that the significant portion of Central Asian economies are composed by agriculture, it can be assumed that the economy would see a decline too. Some issues involving the process of the information and sources occurred. As the research-involving climate and its effects, it should use newest sources and information if possible. However, the amount of sources that where outdated were a major issue in the process of conducting a research. Along with this, the effects of climate change were not studied comprehensively in Central Asia, and there is a lack in open historic climatic records. One of the major weaknesses is the conducted survey. It is answered mainly by teenagers, and the share of adult individuals is smaller compared to teenagers. In addition, some respondents can have negligent attitude towards the survey, therefore affecting the truthfulness of their answers. Part of survey takers do not have an extensive knowledge in the field of climate change and its effects, causing the answers being more of a guessing than an actual knowledge and personal attitude to the problem. However, the data and arguments used from the primary researches are credible, as they were extracted from reports of official international organizations and credible papers. For example “Feeling the Heat” a report by International Monetary Fund’s Central Asian department, which was issued in 2022 by the team of international scientists backed by government provided data, experts of their fields and other international organizations. Thus, the primary research can be considered as credible and reliable.

Conclusion

This research work was aimed to identify the effects of climate change on agriculture, economy and stability of Central Asia. Based on the data and trends illustrated by primary and secondary research, climate change is negatively affecting the already fragile state of Central Asian agriculture, economy and political stability. This is backed by survey, in which overwhelming majority have responded that climate change affects the Central Asia in a various ways, which are not positive. Research work focuses on the issue of water scarcity as the main consequence of climate change, and considers it from the various perspectives.

However, some researches and prediction models suggest that the Central Asia will see an increased amount of precipitation, which in turn will somehow mitigate the water scarcity issues. It could relieve water stress in the region by increasing amount of water supply to glaciers and key transboundary rivers, positively affecting the stability of the region. However, these trends are not researched completely, they remain imprecise. Along with that, precipitation patterns are becoming unpredictable, and extreme weather conditions have become more frequent.

Further development could be made by focusing on the economic effects of climate change, and using more extensive databases with a longer period for analysis if possible. More interviews should be taken from government officials, climatologists. Survey should be conducted accounting for the demographic structure of respondents. To increase the full involvement and decrease the amount of random answers, paper based or other alternative surveying methods should be implemented. The project itself could be improved by discussing the solutions and mitigation methods of climate change effects, or providing a one considering its chances for implementation according to the local conditions.

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