Introduction

Kyrgyzstan has historically been oriented toward hydropower, using mountain rivers as its main energy resource. Indeed, up to 94 % of all electricity is generated from rivers and reservoirs, which makes the energy sector extremely vulnerable to fluctuations in water resources under climate change [6]. Under these conditions, the state declares the need to diversify energy sources by developing other forms of renewable energy, including solar and wind power, in order to improve environmental sustainability [9]. The country’s high-mountain regions — Naryn, Issyk-Kul, Jalal-Abad, Batken, and Osh — remain underprovided with infrastructure: about 4.2 million people live there, which exceeds 60 % of the national population. At the same time, the country possesses considerable renewable energy potential; for example, Sustainability notes that the solar energy potential of Kyrgyzstan is 60 % higher than that of Europe [2].

To achieve the stated goal, the following objectives must be addressed:

1. To summarize contemporary scholarly knowledge on the social impact of renewable energy projects in the mountain regions of Kyrgyzstan.
2. To determine the significance of a comprehensive assessment of social consequences, consideration of local residents’ opinions, and transparent distribution of benefits and risks for improving the effectiveness of renewable energy project governance.

Research methods

The study uses methods of analysis and synthesis of scholarly literature, the comparative method, the method of generalization, and elements of statistical analysis of official data for 2022–2025. The empirical basis consists of materials from the National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic, the Ministry of Energy, international organizations, and data on individual renewable energy project cases. Qualitative analysis was used to interpret social effects, with the aim of identifying the influence of renewable energy projects on the quality of life of the population, local community participation, sustainability, and fairness in the distribution of benefits and risks [8].

Results

In the literature, the social impact of energy projects is usually understood as changes in the living conditions and well-being of the population caused by the construction and operation of energy facilities [1, p. 965]. For example, T. T. Vedeneeva points out that the introduction of renewable energy in remote villages of Kyrgyzstan becomes “a model of scalable decentralized solutions and a demonstration that even under conditions of extreme isolation it is possible to ensure basic standards of living.” This emphasizes that the main benefits of social impact are manifested through improvements in the quality of life, including the electrification of homes, access to equipment, and lighting. The World Bank stresses the need to “jointly develop development plans” with local authorities and residents in order to achieve “fairer and more sustainable outcomes” [8]. Thus, community participation is regarded as a key factor in assessing the social effects of renewable energy; this is a position shared both by development institutions and by experts.

Some authors, such as K. Mehta and colleagues, focus on analyzing the current condition of the energy network and the quality of life in rural areas. In high-mountain villages, >90 % of electricity comes from hydropower, but winter flow decreases cause outages, with about 60 % of households experiencing voltage fluctuations [2]. Other researchers draw attention to long-term sustainability: analysts from Akchabar point out that hydropower as a “gift from the sky” has limited potential and that diversification is necessary; the country is among the three most vulnerable to climate change, while any risks related to water resources alter living conditions throughout the country [6]. In the long run, renewable energy development is viewed as a way to ensure sustainable energy supply and reduce dependence on water, which is directly linked to social well-being.

Fig. 1. Distribution of electricity generation in 2025 by main sources

By end-2025, total generation reached 15.4 billion kWh. Large hydropower accounted for 84 % (12.9 billion kWh). Small hydropower and other RE sources produced only 0.457 billion kWh — about 3 % of total consumption (19.3 billion kWh including imports). As can be seen, large hydropower plants account for the overwhelming majority of production, whereas both small hydropower plants and new solar installations still contribute only a marginal share of total consumption. At the same time, the government is actively expanding small-scale energy programs: in 2023, 10 new mini-hydropower plants were commissioned, and in 2024 the commissioning of 15 more was planned [3]. The renewable energy support program also includes solar projects: by the end of 2025, the total installed capacity of commissioned solar power plants had reached 101.95 MW. However, this capacity is still insufficient, and therefore major investment contracts have been signed in parallel for the construction of five solar and one wind power plant with a combined capacity of 3,150 MW.

Fig. 2 . Examples of decentralized solar electrification projects in remote mountain villages of Kyrgyzstan

Particular attention should be paid to pilot electrification projects in the most remote villages. For example, in the Aksy District, in the village of Kyzyl-Beyit, a group of experts implemented about 50 autonomous solar kits in 2018, including batteries, inverters, televisions, and refrigerators, for 50 households, which made it possible to provide lighting and basic household services in the absence of a centralized grid [7].

This example demonstrates how the introduction of renewable energy under conditions of isolation became “a model of scalable decentralized solutions” and “made it possible to ensure basic standards of living” for mountain residents [7]. In 2024, another 61 such kits with a total capacity of 306 kW were installed in the village of Zardaly in Batken Region, confirming the expansion of practical experience in this field.

No less important is the assessment of the demographic context. The population of predominantly mountainous regions — Naryn, Issyk-Kul, Batken, Jalal-Abad, and Osh — amounts to several million people, while the quality of life there has traditionally remained below average and infrastructure less developed.

These regions experience a shortage of basic services, including electricity. According to the National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic, at the beginning of 2023 the population of the key mountain regions was as follows: Naryn — 314.9 thousand, Issyk-Kul — 549.8 thousand, Batken — 594.7 thousand, Jalal-Abad — 1,358.5 thousand, and Osh — 1,416.7 thousand people. Thus, more than 4.2 million people, that is, more than half of the country’s residents, live under conditions of remoteness and weak infrastructure.

Fig. 3 . Population of key mountainous regions of Kyrgyzstan at the beginning of 2023

Many sources note that the involvement of the local population and the consideration of its opinion are critical conditions for the success of renewable energy projects. Thus, when designing community-based programs, the World Bank emphasizes the need to improve interaction between local authorities and rural residents and to jointly develop development plans in order to achieve fairer and more sustainable outcomes [8]. The absence of such an approach may lead to distrust and conflict. Our analysis of the literature shows that the authors are unanimous in the view that social impact is enhanced when the local population directly participates in projects, for example by helping create community-use energy systems, which ensures recognition of the projects and a more even distribution of benefits [8].

An illustrative empirical case showing the consequences of insufficient consideration of local residents’ opinions in the implementation of small hydropower projects is the situation publicly voiced in March 2026 in the village of Kara-Koy in Nookat District. In a video report published on March 24, 2026, residents stated that they had previously been promised free electricity, compensation for land, assistance to socially vulnerable groups, and improvement of the local territory; however, according to them, these obligations were not fulfilled. At the same time, the population associated the operation of the hydropower plant with restricted access to water, damage to agriculture, road destruction, and rising social risks. This case demonstrates that without full consultations, control over the fulfillment of social obligations, and consideration of the population’s water-related interests, even a potentially useful energy project may be perceived as a source of local injustice and conflict [5].

Many researchers emphasize not only the immediate social effect, such as access to energy and lighting, but also the sustainability of change. For example, a number of economists and analysts point out that renewable energy projects should ensure not just temporary benefits, but durable improvements in quality of life [6]. On the other hand, it is also noted that without integrating projects into the country’s sustainable energy strategy, that is, into its structural and regulatory framework, the effectiveness of renewable energy components will remain limited [9].

Another important direction concerns gender and broader social justice aspects. Official development programs emphasize the task of increasing economic opportunities at the local level, especially for women and youth [8]. This is linked to the fact that predominantly rural and mountainous regions of Kyrgyzstan have a lower socio-economic status and therefore should receive special attention in the distribution of investments in the energy sector [9]. To achieve social justice, authors recommend incorporating mechanisms for distributing advantages into project strategies, including reduced tariffs for the poor, shared participation in infrastructure, and similar measures [1, p. 970]. At present, however, the gap between plans for universal access and the reality in which up to 30 % of the population lacks stable supply indicates the insufficiency of fair approaches in practice [2].

Conclusion

The review of literature and data for 2022–2025 shows that Kyrgyzstan is carrying out an energy transition from a purely hydrocentric system toward diversification through renewable energy sources. However, the current share of “green” generation in the energy balance remains extremely small, although the government plans a large-scale expansion of small hydropower and solar power, including the construction of 15 mini-hydropower plants and solar facilities with capacities measured in hundreds of megawatts [3]. The social consequences of such projects are revealed most clearly in the context of high-mountain communities. At the same time, the literature indicates that the key elements of positive social impact are the participation of local residents and the fair distribution of benefits [8].

At the same time, important tasks of governance effectiveness remain unresolved: it is necessary to create an integrated system for assessing and monitoring the social effects of renewable energy projects [1, p. 973]. This requires the systematic collection of qualitative data, including surveys, demographic indicators, and infrastructure data, as well as official statistics, for example on the number of households that have obtained electricity. In addition, mechanisms of participation are needed, ranging from public hearings to joint enterprises with local councils, in order to strengthen the social contract around energy initiatives [8]. Ultimately, the combination of modern renewable energy technologies with consideration of local socio-cultural features and the principles of energy justice will provide precisely the social impact that makes it possible to achieve fairer and more sustainable outcomes for the mountain regions of Kyrgyzstan [8].

References:

1. Dendena B., Corsi S. The Environmental and Social Impact Assessment: a further step towards an integrated assessment process // Journal of Cleaner Production. — 2015. — Vol. 108. — P. 965–977.
2. Mehta K., Ehrenwirth M., Missall S., Degembaeva N., Akmatov K., Zörner W. Energy profiling of a high-altitude Kyrgyz community: Challenges and motivations to preserve floodplain ecosystems based on household survey // Sustainability. — 2021. — Vol. 13 (23). — Article 13086.
3. Talant Ak-Bulak. UBADA atkarylbagan JANY kurulgan GES Kara-Koy Nookat [Video] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NI0Qj1OUpxM
4. Teter Z. Electricity without borders: why Kyrgyzstan needs to diversify its energy // Akchabar. — 2025. — https://www.akchabar.kg/article/banki-qfocdypwkrljimms/elektrichestvo-bez-granits-zachem-kirgizstanu-diversifitsirovat-energetiku-tzjztvsphlyjgakl
5. Ushakov V. Kyzyl-Beyit: from isolation to energy independence // Ecostan. — 2025. — https://ecostan.kg/vremya-kozhozhasha/848-kyzyl-bejit-ot-izoljacii-k-jenergeticheskoj-nezavisimosti.html
6. World Bank. Kyrgyz Republic to scale up the impact of community-driven development, with World Bank support. — 2024. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2024/07/31/kyrgyz-republic-to-scale-up-the-impact-of-community-driven-development-with-world-bank-support
7. Kabar National News Agency. Mini-HPPs and RES in Kyrgyzstan: development and prospects. — 2026. — https://ru.kabar.kg/news/mini-ges-i-vie-v-kyrgyzstane-razvitie-i-perspektivy/
8. Ministry of Energy of the Kyrgyz Republic. Board meeting results for 2025. — 2026. — https://minenergo.gov.kg/ru/news/936
9. National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic. Permanent population at the beginning of the year. — https://stat.gov.kg/ru/opendata/category/39/