About 70 % of Tajikistan's population suffers from a shortage of electricity during the winter. These outages result in economic losses estimated at more than $200 million per year, or 3 percent of GDP. In addition to the financial costs associated with the lack of electricity, the Tajik people also suffer social costs, including indoor air pollution from burning wood and coal in homes and the health effects of extreme winters. Winter electricity shortages are caused by a combination of low winter hydropower generation, low river flows, and high demand due to heating needs. Without prompt action to address the causes, Tajikistan's energy crisis could worsen. However, it is known that Tajikistan has one of the world's highest reserves of hydropower. The potential hydropower resources in the republic amount to more than 527 billion kWh, but today only 5 % of these resources are used. The prospects for the development of relatively cheap and environmentally friendly electricity in the country are enormous. Despite the progress made in the energy sector, there is still a shortage of electricity in remote areas.
The study focuses on several actions that can be taken simultaneously and immediately that will create key elements of energy security for Tajikistan, namely curbing unsustainable demand growth, maintaining the existing asset base, and addressing the thermal/hydropower imbalance in the energy sector.
Although the Government of Tajikistan recognizes the importance and challenges of energy security and is taking various measures to meet demand.
Приблизительно 70 % населения Таджикистана страдает от нехватки электроэнергии в зимний период. Эти перебои приводят к экономическим потерям, оцениваемым в более чем 200 миллионов долларов США в год или 3 % ВВП. Помимо финансовых затрат, связанных с отсутствием электроэнергии, таджикский народ также страдает от социальных издержек, включая загрязнение воздуха в помещениях из-за сжигания дров и угля в домах и последствия экстремальных зим для здоровья. Зимняя нехватка электроэнергии вызвана сочетанием низкой выработки гидроэлектроэнергии в зимний период, низким уровнем речного стока и высоким спросом на электроэнергию в связи с потребностями отопления. спроса в связи с потребностями отопления. Без принятия оперативных мер по устранению причин энергетический кризис в Таджикистане может усугубиться. Однако известно, что Таджикистан занимает одно из первых мест в мире по запасам гидроэнергии. Потенциальные ресурсы гидроэнергии в республике составляют более 527 млрд. кВт/ч, но сегодня используется только 5 % этих ресурсов. Перспективы развития относительно дешевой и экологически чистой электроэнергии в стране огромны. Несмотря на прогресс, достигнутый в энергетическом секторе, в отдаленных районах все еще ощущается нехватка электроэнергии.
Исследование фокусируется на нескольких действиях, которые могут быть предприняты одновременно и незамедлительно и позволят создать основные элементы энергетической безопасности для Таджикистана, а именно: сдерживание неустойчивого роста спроса, сохранение существующей базы активов и решение проблемы дисбаланса тепловой/гидроэнергетики в энергетическом секторе.
Хотя правительство Таджикистана признает важность и проблемы энергетической безопасности и принимает различные меры для удовлетворения спроса.
Novelty and problem statement
A reliable energy supply is critical to Tajikistan's economy and poverty reduction goals. Without reliable, affordable electricity throughout the year, Tajikistan's businesses cannot invest, operate and create jobs; hospitals and schools cannot function fully and safely with frequent power outages in the winter; and citizens suffer from indoor air pollution from burning wood for heating and cooking. Electricity also fuels the country's two largest exports: aluminum and agricultural products, which account for about 30 percent of Tajikistan's annual gross domestic product and nearly 45 percent of export earnings. Electricity is currently the cheapest resource available to heat homes, so the residential and commercial sectors rely heavily on electricity for heating, lighting and industrial processes. The government is responsible for administering programs that maintain electricity supply at the level of demand. The Government of Tajikistan (GoT) recognizes the importance and challenge of energy security and has introduced various measures to meet demand. President Emomali Rahmon's annual address to the Majlisi Oli (Parliament) of the Republic of Tajikistan (April 20, 2012) emphasizes the importance of energy saving policies, effective management and development of energy resources, reduction of energy losses and constant search for new energy sources.
The purpose of this study is to assist the Government in further identifying ways to meet the growing demand for electricity in Tajikistan, with a particular focus on the recurring winter deficit, which accounts for about 24 % of winter demand. The study also examines the potential benefits of electricity exports, particularly in the summer when hydropower plants spill energy. The study looks at a number of alternatives for meeting electricity demand as soon as possible and developing a short-term action plan to reduce the social and economic costs of winter shortages. The study focuses on multiple initiatives that can be initiated immediately and simultaneously, and will create the fundamental components of Tajikistan's energy security, namely curbing unsustainable demand growth, protecting the existing asset base, and addressing the thermal/hydropower imbalance in the energy sector.
This report is structured as follows. Section 2 describes electricity demand along with management and explores opportunities for energy efficiency improvements. Section 3 describes alternative sources of supply. Section 4 summarizes the discussion.
Current demand for electricity
Tajikistan's annual electricity demand fluctuated between 16,000 and 17,000 GWh over the previous decade, peaking in 2007. Under the impact of the financial crisis, demand fell to just over 16,000 GWh. TALCO, an aluminum smelter, accounted for 40 % of demand. The residential sector accounts for 45 % of all consumers. Electricity consumption fluctuates dramatically throughout the year, as it does in countries with harsh winter and summer temperatures. Although demand from TALCO is fairly constant, demand from residential, government and commercial customers is highest in winter when low temperatures and short daylight hours increase demand for heating and lighting. Because the cost of electricity in Tajikistan is cheap and the choice of heating options is limited, demand for electricity is extremely high compared to other countries in the Europe and Central Asia region that use natural gas or district heating to heat homes. Electricity consumption in the agricultural sector is mostly limited to the summer months, when water-intensive crops such as cotton require irrigation. The structure and seasonality of demand in 2021 is as follows [1].
Fig. 1. Monthly electricity demand by sector, 2021 [1]
Tajikistan's energy system is now unable to satisfy demand, resulting in a significant shortfall throughout the winter months. These shortfalls are the result of a combination of high winter heating demands, a shortage of power and gas imports since 2009, and reliance on a hydroelectric plant with lower capacity in winter owing to low river flow. Due to hydrological circumstances, the winter call corresponds with the hydroelectric plant's minimal era electricity availability. River runoff, in particular, is at its lowest in March, reducing the output of any power plants, particularly those without the capacity to employ a garage (i.e., «river» power plants). Additionally, figure 2 (refer to [2]) compares the energy era to the overall period for four separate years.
Fig. 2. Electricity production per month, 2021 [2]
Unsatisfied (or «unattended») demand was estimated at 2,700 GWh (2012) at the consumer level. Including transmission and distribution losses, the deficit at the generation level is about 3,100 GWh in winter compared to a total winter supply demand of 11,200 GWh, i.e., a gap of about 24 %. The corresponding deficit in permanent system capacity is about 1,250 MW.
Currently, about 70 % of the population suffers from winter power outages, incurring direct costs in the form of: (a) lost income from economic activity; (b) additional costs due to equipment damage and business interruption; and (c) costs from damage to household equipment. In addition to the economic burden associated with the electricity system crisis, there are also dire consequences for Tajikistan's households. In Tajikistan, households heat their homes by burning solid fuels (primarily firewood and coal) during winter, when electricity is intermittently supplied to homes. As a result, the frequency of carbon monoxide poisonings due to indoor air pollution is high. The World Health Organization ranks Tajikistan among the 20 countries with the worst incidence of diseases caused by indoor air pollution. Domestic combustion of solid fuels is a major health risk factor in Tajikistan and particularly affects women and children. Warming becomes the main concern of the family and overrides the risks of fire and poor indoor air quality.
Mostly, the demand of the population, government and other consumers is not met when generation capacity is insufficient to meet overall demand. The agricultural sector does not suffer from winter shortages because demand is mostly limited to the summer months when water-intensive crops, such as cotton, require irrigation. The cost of unmet demand is roughly estimated at $200 million per year, or about 3 % of GDP.
Alternatives for Electricity Supply
The Tajik system's 4,950 MW of installed capacity must be protected in order to satisfy demand. The majority of Tajikistan's hydropower plants (HPPs) have been in use for 45 to 50 years without substantial upgrades or restoration. This contrasts with industry norms of 25-year economic lifetimes for hydroelectric equipment and 50-year economic lives for civil works. Mainly, all electrical equipment of Tajikistan's HPPs need to be replace or rehabilitated. These HPPs also call for civil works restoration, such as the removal of debris and other obstacles from tailrace canals. For some projects, namely Nurek, deposition is an equally difficult task to maintain throughput.
The Nurek hydroelectric project serves as the foundation for Tajikistan's electrical infrastructure. At 3,000 MW, it accounts for more than 60 % of the total installed capacity. The dam is the world's highest, standing at 300 meters. The reservoir measures 70 km in length and 98 km in width. The reservoir's primary purpose was to meet irrigation needs, with energy generation as a side effect.
Tajikistan's hydroelectric storage capacity, even with Nurek, is insufficient to satisfy the country's winter energy requirements. Weekly changes in river flows are accommodated by reservoir capacity, but seasonal variations are not.
As a result, Tajikistan finds itself in the unenviable position of having surplus capacity throughout the summer months and restricted sales prospects. Water is spilled in the course of the summer time season due to the fact the system's reservoir potential is inadequate to keep it for the wintry weather months. This problem is probably mitigated through growing reservoir garage ability alongside the identical river cascade.
Rehabilitation of hydropower plants
Protecting the 4,950 MW of existing installed capacity in Tajikistan's system is key to meeting demand. Most hydropower plants (HPPs) in Tajikistan operate for an average of 45–50 years without major investments in modernization or rehabilitation. This compares with industry norms, which state that hydropower equipment has a service life of 25 years and construction works have a service life of 50 years. Most old hydropower plants require rehabilitation or replacement of turbines, generators, transformers, and other key pieces of electromechanical equipment. These HPPs also require rehabilitation of construction work, including removal of debris and other obstructions from tailrace channels. For some projects, namely the Nurek HPP, sedimentation is no less of a challenge to maintain capacity.
Non-hydro renewable energy (RE)
Various RES technologies were analyzed in terms of possible short- and medium-term development in Tajikistan as part of an earlier phase of the study. The results of this assessment are as follows: As part of the analysis carried out in the earlier stages of the study, various RES technologies were analyzed in terms of possible short- and medium-term development in Tajikistan. The results of this assessment are as follows:
Wind Energy: According to existing studies and assessments of wind energy in Tajikistan, the potential for commercial energy facilities is modest. Wind farms with average wind speeds of 5 m/s or more tend to be located in remote and mountainous areas, where grid connections are prohibitively expensive. As a result, wind power is seen as a decentralized solution, operating in island mode and supported by energy storage. For the purposes of this analysis, wind power is not considered a significant potential alternative to energy supply. However, the feasibility of using off-grid wind power for power supply in isolated rural areas should be evaluated.
Solar Energy (for power generation): With regard to solar energy, photovoltaic power is seen as a potential option that could be developed in Tajikistan, where climatic conditions are favorable. Solar radiation is particularly high in the mountainous areas. The country's potential is estimated at about 25 billion kWh/year. However, photovoltaics cannot provide stable power without storage and have only a limited positive impact on the winter deficit due to low radiation during this season. Overall, in the context of energy system planning, solar power plays a major role in energy savings because it cannot be relied upon for availability. Since fuels in the form of gas, oil or coal play only a very minor role in Tajikistan, solar energy is not considered as a priority energy supply option. Nevertheless, since solar photovoltaic power is technically feasible, it has been considered as a power supply option with the following technical parameters:
— Installed capacity: 50 MW ((distributed across five sites) constant capacity: 0 MW; average annual power: 77 GWh earliest date: 2015)
— capital costs: $152 million
— Unit cost: 64 cents/kWh (based on energy available in winter).
Other technologies, such as geothermal or waste-to-energy, have limited potential and exorbitant costs. Independent consultants believe that in the near and medium term, the use of waste in energy is too expensive for Tajikistan. The prospects for geothermal energy are unclear. However, given the geological features of the country, the Government of Tajikistan may consider conducting surface surveys to identify promising geothermal sites that could support geothermal power plants.
Conclusion
This paper assesses the crisis of Tajikistan at the international level and shows an alternative way to provide the population with reliable and affordable electricity. Thus, based on the research conducted, it is shown that there is potential for unconventional resources that need to be exploited. This study will assist the government in further identifying solutions to meet the growing energy demand in Tajikistan, with particular emphasis on the recurring winter deficit, which accounts for about 24 % of winter demand.
The study also examines the benefits of electricity exports, especially in the summer, when hydropower plants are leaking energy. To reduce the social and economic impact of winter energy shortages, the study looks at a number of solutions to quickly meet energy demand and develop a short-term action plan. Summaries are summarized and conclusions are condensed.
The study also looks at the benefits of exporting electricity, especially in the summer when hydroelectric power plants are leaking energy. To reduce the social and economic impact of winter energy shortages, the study looks at a number of solutions to meet energy demand quickly and develops a short-term action plan. The conclusion summarizes the results of the study.
The report focuses on a number of immediate and simultaneous actions that can be taken that will create critical components of energy security for Tajikistan, including: limiting growth in unavailable demand, protecting the current asset base, and thermal/hydro imbalances in the energy sector.
Acknowledgement
This work was supported by the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources of Tajikistan.
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