Migration processes that have expanded in recent years, including international labor migration, have had a significant impact on the state and development trends of the labor market. The article provides a quantitative and qualitative analysis of the dynamics of migration processes in the Republic of Kazakhstan and their risks and trends for the development of the labor market. The results of the study show that the negative balance of migration in the country with a predominance of qualified personnel among emigrants, the growth of illegal labor migration, due to the low opportunity cost of labor of migrants, contribute to the downward trend in the quality of human capital and risks in the labor market of Kazakhstan.
Keywords: labor migration, balance of migration, labor market, immigrants, emigrants.
Introduction
At the present stage, the labor market is the most important component of any economic system. The availability of the required amount of labor resources and their qualitative composition determine the level of the economy as a whole. In turn, the features of the development of the national labor market largely depend on the political and socio-economic situation in the world. Migration processes that have expanded in recent years, including international labor migration, have had a significant impact on the state and development trends of the labor market of the Republic of Kazakhstan.
The lack of an established mechanism for managing the labor resources of the territory, the irrational distribution of migration flows and their negative impact on the development of the labor market are today an urgent problem of the Republic of Kazakhstan.
This article analyzes and assesses the trends in migration processes in the country, as well as the existing risks in the Kazakhstani labor market associated with an increase in the outflow of high-quality human capital from Kazakhstan and the influx of foreign labor migration, which contributes to filling vacancies in regional labor markets. In this regard, in order to achieve the goal of the study, a quantitative and qualitative assessment was made of the migration processes of the regions of the republic, the professional and qualification characteristics of labor migrants.
Regional features of the demographic situation in the Republic of Kazakhstan form the specifics and initial base of the country's labor potential and its most important qualities as a productive force. According to the Bureau of National Statistics, the population of the Republic of Kazakhstan in 2021 amounted to 19,042.1 thousand people. The Republic of Kazakhstan is characterized by a positive natural increase and migration outflow of the population, so in 2020 the indicators of natural population growth in the country amounted to 14.16‰, having increased by 9.76‰ since 1999, and the migration balance was negative and amounted to in 2020 -17 718 people [1].
One of the important problems for the regions of the Republic of Kazakhstan, which is becoming increasingly important today, is the outflow of labor resources to developed countries for study or work.
Migration also affects the increase in tension in the labor market, at the level of technical equipment of jobs [2]. This is due to the fact that a significant percentage of labor migrants have a low level of education and qualifications.
Kazakhstan belongs to the group of countries that are characterized by the entry of a large number of low-skilled workers and the departure of a significant proportion of highly skilled [3], which is opposite to the trends typical for developed countries. The quantitative filling of jobs by migrants does not mean the preservation of the human capital of the region, but often, on the contrary, significantly reduces it.
Of course, migration has a significant impact on the quality and quantity of human resources. The large-scale outflow of high-quality human capital negatively affects the development of the knowledge economy in the donor region. When determining migration policy, it is necessary to take into account the fact that migration processes are both a cause and a consequence of problems arising in education, science and the labor market.
With the acquisition of independence, the beginning of the transformation processes of the former USSR and the expansion of the possibility of returning certain ethnic groups to their historical homeland, in Kazakhstan, as in many other CIS countries, there has been a trend towards an increase in the negative balance of migration. So, for 1991–2000. the negative balance of migration not only completely absorbed the natural increase in the population of this period, but also exceeded it by more than 2 times. Analysis of the dynamics of population growth in Kazakhstan for 1991–2000. shows that the main reason for the overall decline in the population of the country was the negative balance of migration, which, since 1992, has exceeded the natural increase. At the same time, the largest decrease in the population occurred in the industrially developed regions of the country due to the outflow of the population of Karaganda, East Kazakhstan, Akmola, Kostanay, North Kazakhstan oblasts abroad. 1994 was designated as a «peak» in the external migration of Kazakhstan. However, after that, the rate began to gradually decline, amounting to 128 thousand people in 1999.
In the 2000s, with the stabilization of the economy, those wishing to leave the country decreased somewhat. The minimum number of people who left Kazakhstan during the years of independence was registered in 2013–24.38 thousand people, since then there has been an increase in the number of people leaving the country, and in 2019 the number of emigrants has already reached 45.22 thousand people. In 2020, this figure dropped to 29.1 thousand people, which is associated with the introduction of quarantine measures — the closure of borders.
At the same time, the number of immigrants is also decreasing — not taking into account the “quarantine” 2020, the minimum level of migrant inflow was registered in 2019–12.26 thousand people. In 2019, 12.26 thousand people arrived in the republic, which is 6 times less than in 2005 (74.81 thousand people). In 2020, 11.37 thousand people left the country (Fig. 1).
Fig 1. Dynamics of migration of the population of the Republic of Kazakhstan in 2000–2020.
From 2004 to 2011 the balance of external migration had a positive trend, and since 2012 it shows only negative statistics with a trend towards further negative growth. Although the current figures do not reach the critical statistics of the 90s, signs of an increase in the outflow are already observed today.
The largest outflow of the population abroad is observed mainly from the eastern, central and northern regions of Kazakhstan. This is due to the higher percentage of the European ethnic component in the demographic structure of their population. In 2019, 7143 people left the East Kazakhstan oblast for permanent residence. Slightly fewer emigrants were recorded in the Karaganda oblast — 5776 people. The leaders in the outflow of the population also included Kostanay, Pavlodar and North Kazakhstan oblasts, from where 5708, 5594 and 4315 people left in 2019, respectively. Even during the introduction of restrictive measures in 2020, the largest outflow of the population outside the republic was observed in the same regions, but on a smaller scale.
At the same time, the influx of immigrants from other countries was observed mainly in the southern and western regions of the country. So, in 2019, 2695 people arrived in the Mangystau oblast, while 567 people left the region abroad. At the same time, 2147 people moved to the Almaty oblast, 1380 people left the region. A positive balance of migration in 2019 was observed only in 2 of these regions. In 2019, for the first time in the last 20 years, a negative balance of migration was recorded in the Turkestan oblast (-24 people). In 2020, the Turkestan oblast was again added to the number of regions with a positive balance of external migration.
This poses a threat to the economic potential of the regions of Kazakhstan, which are experiencing the greatest outflow of the population. We are talking primarily about the northern region of the republic. In general, population decline is perceived as a threat to national security, including by virtue of providing the economy with new labor resources.
The process of immigration, designed to reduce labor shortages in the Northern, Eastern and Central regions of Kazakhstan, is actually reinforcing this trend. This is due to the fact that prior to the beginning of 2016, oralmans, who make up the bulk of immigrants, were settled without taking into account the socio-economic needs of the regions. Only by Decree of the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan No. 82 dated February 18, 2016, labor-deficient regions of placement were determined [4]. According to the Decree, out of 1259 allocated quotas for 2016, 690 quotas were for Pavlodar oblast, 260 quotas (20.6 %) — for East Kazakhstan oblast, 123 quotas (9.7 %) — for Akmola oblast, 108 quotas (8.5 %) — to the North Kazakhstan oblast and the remaining 78 families (6 %) — to Atyrau, West Kazakhstan and Kostanay oblasts. It should be taken into account the fact that when determining the regions for the placement of repatriates, the oralmans themselves tend to settle mainly in the Southern region or the Mangystau oblast.
One of the centers of attraction for migrants from Kazakhstan is the Russian Federation, where the birth rate fell in the 1990s, and today, when the market needs labor force and professionals, human capital is attracted from outside. At the same time, the repatriation programs conducted in Russia also facilitated the movement of ethnic Russians from Kazakhstan, which are one of the largest ethnic groups in the country. In 2019, 39.77 thousand people or 87.9 % of the total flow of external migrants moved to the Russian Federation. In second place was Germany, where 2803 people went for permanent residence, or 6.2 % of the total number of those who left.
In 2019, 578 people moved to Poland from Kazakhstan, in 2018 the number of emigrants to Poland was 413 people. 440 Kazakhs moved to Uzbekistan in 2019. The Republic of Belarus closes the top five most popular directions of external migration, where 355 people left for permanent residence in 2019 [1].
Thus, the growing shortage of labor resources in the Northern, Central and Eastern regions of the country is not compensated by the process of immigration. In addition to the number of migrants, the discrepancy between the departed and arrived labor resources also arises in terms of the level of education. An analysis of emigrants by level of education indicates an increase in the outflow of migrants with higher and secondary specialized education and the influx of migrants with secondary general education.
Indeed, it is mainly qualified personnel who leave Kazakhstan abroad. So, in 2019, 33.56 thousand people over 15 left the country for permanent residence, of which 12.63 thousand people, or 37.6 %, had a higher education and 10.86 thousand, or 32, 4 % — secondary vocational education. 6.14 thousand people or 18.3 % graduated from high school and only 11.7 % or 3.94 thousand people had incomplete school education.
The largest number of qualified personnel who left Kazakhstan in 2019, or 30.5 % of the total number of immigrants, were representatives of technical specialties. The outflow of «techies» from the republic is understandable, given that they mainly migrate to Russia, where there is a shortage of these personnel. So, in 2019, of the total number of those who left the Republic of Kazakhstan, 15.9 % of specialists had economic, 10.6 % — pedagogical and 5.16 % — medical education. Lawyers close the top five with a share of 3.64 % of the total number of certified emigrants [1].
With newcomers to Kazakhstan in 2019, the situation was slightly different. Of the 10.57 thousand people older than 15, only 2.09 thousand people or 19.7 % have higher education. 2.62 thousand people or 24.8 % of the total number of arrivals had a diploma of secondary vocational education. However, more than half of the new citizens of the republic had only a school education, of which 3.59 thousand people had secondary general education and 2.27 people had secondary basic education [1].
As a result, in 2019, 4,710 personnel arrived in Kazakhstan against 23,488 who left. At the same time, of the certified arrivals, 20 % had a technical education, 11.6 % had an economic education, 502 people or 10.7 % were teachers and 302 people or 6.4 % had a medical education [1].
Since labor migration requires higher education as a competitive advantage, qualified specialists prevail among emigrants. At the same time, the decision to change the place of residence is made by the adult population, who mainly has work experience and the qualifications required in the host country.
As for immigrants, some of them are young people entering the country's higher educational institutions, who then remain to work there.
Conclusion
The results of the study allow us to state that the Republic of Kazakhstan is characterized by a positive initial demographic base of labor resources, which increases due to natural population growth, which leads to an increase in the labor resources of the country. An analysis of the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of labor resources and migration of the population of the Republic of Kazakhstan shows that there are certain risks associated with labor migrants, both immigrants and emigrants.
One of the important problems for the regions of the Republic of Kazakhstan, which is becoming increasingly important today, is the outflow of labor resources to developed countries or more promising regions within the country. These migration processes lead to a shortage of personnel in some regions and filling the labor market in other regions. Starting from 2012, the balance of external migration shows only negative statistics with a trend towards further negative growth. A significant outflow of the population abroad threatens the economic potential of the regions of Kazakhstan. In general, population decline is perceived as a threat to national security, including by virtue of providing the economy with new labor resources.
At the same time, the influx of immigrants from other countries is observed mainly in the southern and western regions of the country. The growth of foreign labor migration contributes to the filling of vacancies in regional labor markets, thereby reducing the employment opportunities of the local population.
References:
- “Taldau” information-analytical SYSTEM: [website]. — URL: taldau.stat.gov.kz (дата обращения: 05.11.2022).
- Pavlov K. V. Strategy of socio-economic development in the regions of the North of Russia / K. V. Pavlov, I. V. Selin // Problems of the modern economy. — 2010 — No. 3 (35). — S. 311–315.
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- Decree of the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan dated February 18, 2016 No. 83 “On the definition of regions for the resettlement of kandas and migrants”.
