As is known, Russia's economy is currently experiencing a rather difficult times, many scholars describe as the financial and economic crisis of 2014–2015 years. First Vice Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Igor Shuvalov said that the crisis in Russia, the Russian economy began in the year 2008, and now it was only apparent [1, p.7].
After the economic crisis of 2008–2009 seemed that the measures taken by the Russian government could lead the country out of the next test, and in 2010–2011 the country entered a period of recovery. However, since 2012 economic growth began to decline, then came even certain recession — in 2012. The rise in oil prices, «spoiled» structural reforms in the Russian economy.
By the beginning of 2014, in the Russian economy have accumulated negative trends, which were the result of problems accumulated and are not permitted in previous years, such as the lack of confidence on the part of the business and its low business activity, the transition of the Russian economy to a prolonged stagnation with priority consumption growth and decline investments; a constant outflow of capital; growth of budget commitments and unsecured, and the weakening of market and legal institutions [2, p.35].
The main impetus for the deterioration of the economic situation in Russia in 2014 was the drop in world prices for oil (the end of 2014, oil prices have fallen almost by half), as well as the imposition of economic sanctions by the West against Russia because of the events in Ukraine.
. However, if more deeply consider the reasons for the Russian economy crisis, 2014–2015, it is possible to allocate two basic: it's aggressive foreign policy of the USA and market dependence of the Russian economy on world markets.
Let us consider in more detail the reasons for the data. Many economists believe that the aggressive foreign policy of the USA is due to «a change of technological structures and the age-old cycles of accumulation, in which there is a deep restructuring of the economy on the basis of fundamentally new technologies and new mechanisms of reproduction of capital» [3]. During these periods, «is a sharp destabilization of the system of international relations, the destruction of the old and the formation of a new world order, which is accompanied by the wars between the old and new leaders for dominance in the world market» [3].
And indeed, the world wars, and then the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union have made it possible to capture the US global leadership due to their excellence in the development of new technologies and the establishment of a monopoly on the issue of global money — dollars.
In modern times, significantly ahead we see China in the wake of the growth of the new technological order, but the accumulation of capital in Japan creates opportunities for global reproduction of capital has shifted to Southeast Asia.
Facing difficulties over accumulation of capital in the financial pyramids, and in the long-obsolete industries, including the loss of markets for its products and a drop in the dollar role in the implementation of international operations, America tries to keep its leadership position by deploying the war in the Middle East to weaken as its competitors and their partners.
Economic sanctions imposed by Western countries against Russia because of the annexation of the Crimea and the armed conflict in eastern Ukraine, which, according to the West, launched a Russian — is the result of Russophobia and aggressive policy of the United States. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov believes that economic sanctions America avenges independent Russian policy pursued by President Vladimir Putin.
Economic sanctions are a ban on cooperation with the Russian western companies, and declared an economic blockade of the Crimea.
Also, quite a negative impact sanctions are linked to restrictions on investment. Such sanctions hinder Russian companies and banks to access the external debt market, which does not allow to fully refinancing the foreign debt.
Another reason is the dependence of the Russian economy on world markets. Many economists believe that the dependence of the Russian economy on world markets is due to the structural crisis in the Russian economy and its excessive financial openness.
This is explained by the fact that in recent years in the industrial structure of the Russian economy significantly increased the proportion of fuel and energy complex, is the basis of export potential, as well as the basic complex of the Russian economy as a whole.
The oil «needle» for the Russian economy has become vital because of the international oil prices depends on the rate of Russian ruble and export of petroleum products is considered to be the main criterion for the stability and survival of the Russian economy. For example, almost all the costs and revenues of the Russian budget is calculated on the basis of forecast estimates on global oil prices.
Many economists have criticized as carried out in the Russian monetary policy, in which advantage is given to foreign capital, which is connected to emission centers of world currencies. [4]
The result of this policy was the significant external dependence of Russian economy on external markets, raw materials Russian specialty, degradation in the investment sector, the decline in the manufacturing industry, as well as the subordination of the Russian financial system to foreign interests.
The solution to all the problems and the speed of recovery from the crisis are closely linked with the choice of Russia's economic policy. Russian economists NV Akindinova and EG Yassin believed that [1, p.10] the following scenarios in the development of the Russian economy:
− Inertial scenario, when not able to happen modernization of the Russian economy and advance the European Union and the United States;
− Mobilization scenario, when an attempt is made of the mobilization by the consolidation of society around the idea of development of the country, regardless of the Western world. In this scenario may occur spurt in the rate for a short period and then can come the exhaustion of resources and the economy transition to a deep recession or even a recession;
− A breakthrough. This scenario is difficult to implement, because Russian society is not ready to perception of liberal ideas and the implementation of reforms;
− Gradual development, which is associated with the construction of an evolutionary system of checks and balances, which will balance the interests of the oil and gas and the power of the oligarchy, which tend to concentrate resources and discrimination of others. Only in this way it is possible to go to higher rates of economic growth that will be enough for the modernization of the economy, or at least to avoid a long recession.
This scenario, according to N. V. Akindinova and E. G. Yassin, particularly for the package of institutional reforms, allows a fairly short period of time to enter the rates that exceed the rate of growth in Western Europe, and possibly in the United States.
According to A. V. Schankin and L. L. Zhabyko to the Russian economy as quickly as possible «out» of the crisis, it is necessary to perform a number of tasks.
Russia needs to overcome the lag in the use of modern technology to facilitate the management of production development.
State banking system of Russia should concentrate investment on the most promising directions in the development of the economy, which will compensate for the absence of an efficiently operating market mechanism flow of capital.
Overcoming the existing imbalances in the fiscal system, which implies a reduction of the tax burden on labor and production activities, as well as the expansion of non-tax revenue sources, primarily of payments for use of natural resources [9].
Considering the forecasts for the prospects of the Russian economy in 2017 it can be seen that the economists cannot agree to what the general opinion, as is currently the country's economy is undergoing a not very easy times, the situation is quite changing rapidly, which means that to make any the stable outlook is problematic. The experts still make assumptions about the future of the country, thinking up various scenarios, as the Russians need to know what they should prepare.
Overall, the economic outlook for 2017 can be called a relatively neutral and, therefore, the prospects of life in Russia can be considered approximately the same, that is not good, but like anything bad should not be expected. The peak of the crisis seems over, and so we can assume that the economy will begin to recover, but it is probable that the economic recovery will be quick, minimal. On the recovery of the purchasing power of the population, the development of Russian industry and the normalization of Russian banks need some time, but according to all the forecasts, this process still will not be too lengthy in time.
Summing up we can say with certainty, in Russia there are all possibilities for overcoming the crisis and revitalize the socio-economic development. The interest of the international business in Russia is still very high and, despite sanctions, to talk about the international isolation of Russia simply superfluous.
References:
- Lapin N. V. Problems and prospects of development of the Russian economy // Economy, management, finance: the VI Intern. scientific. Conf. (Krasnodar, February 2016). — Krasnodar: Novation, 2016. — S. 7–10.
- Akindinova N. V., Yasin E. G. A new stage of economic development in post-Soviet Russia: rep. XVI to April. Intern. scientific. Conf. on the development of economy and society, Moscow, April 7–10. 2015 / N. V. Akindinova, E. G. Yasin; Nat. issled. Univ «Higher School of Economics». — M.: Publishing. Home Higher School of Economics, 2015. – 35 c.
- Glazyev S. Y. About external and internal threats to Russia's economic security in terms of US aggression: Scientific report / Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, 2014; Glazyev S. Y., Batchikov S. A., A. B. Kobyakov stand up (report Izborsk Club) — Access: http://www.trinitas.ru.
- Otyrba A. Kobyakov A. How to win the financial war. Almanac «however». June-July 2014 — Access: http://www.odnako.org
- D. V. Tulin Looking seignior age, or the easy way to prosperity (Review of the controversy around the policy of the Bank of Russia) / «Money and Credit» — № 12–2014: Access mode: http://www.icpress.ru
- The official website of the Russian Government — Access: http://government.ru
- The official website of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation — Access: http://economy.gov.ru
- The official website of the Federal State Statistics Service — Access: www.gks.ru; Information site ANO Levada Center — Access: http://www.levada.ru
- Schankin A. V. Zhabyko L. L. Economic policy in modern Russia under the crisis, 2014–2015 gg. // 2015, № 3 (4), pp. 17–20.
