Библиографическое описание:

Садыкова А. Т. The Technologies of Probabilistic Forecasting Mechanism in the Process of Simultaneous Interpreting [Текст] // Филологические науки в России и за рубежом: материалы II междунар. науч. конф. (г. Санкт-Петербург, ноябрь 2013 г.). — СПб.: Реноме, 2013. — С. 102-103.

The expansion of international organizations’ activity and development of international relations and contacts has increased the demand for professional interpreters. Today, the profession of simultaneous interpreter is becoming the high-demanded one, because only by providing professional interpretation it becomes possible to conduct numerous international events: forums, conferences, summits, workshops, seminars, etc.

The successful implementation of simultaneous interpretation depends on some psychological mechanisms: switching from the source language into the target language, the mechanisms of probabilistic forecasting and predictive synthesis, mechanisms of compression and decompression, and mechanism of synchronization.

It should be noted that in the most studies of simultaneous interpretation a sufficient attention should be paid to the mechanism of probabilistic forecasting. There are numerous studies dedicated to the consideration of probabilistic forecasting mechanism from a psychological point of view and it is regarded as one of the advanced levels of anticipation process. The mechanism of probabilistic forecasting was extensively studied by such scholars as I. M. Feigenberg, A. N. Leontiev, S. L. Rubinstein, G.Chernov and I. A. Zimyaya, L. S. Vygotsky, etc.

In psychology probabilistic forecasting is one of the mechanisms inherent to a man in all kinds of his activities. I. M. Feigenberg defines the concept of probabilistic forecasting as «an anticipation of the future based on the probabilistic structure of past experience and information about the present situation» [1, c. 3].

J. Miller describes this mechanism the following way: «The listener begins with the assumption of a signal at the input. On the basis of this assumption he generates an internal signal to be compared with the perceived one» [2].

In addition to the term «probabilistic forecasting» in many works are also used such terms as «anticipation», «prediction», «forecast». All of these concepts are connected by the principle of anticipatory reflection of reality. Probabilistic forecasting has a variety of forms as a psychological phenomenon: it acts as a regulation of mental processes (perception, memory, thinking) and provides a kind of functional relationship between them.

Probabilistic forecasting covers a wide range of phenomena and situations of human activities ranging from the prediction of external events, the results of his actions, and estimation of the expected results [1, c.4–5].

In simultaneous interpretation probabilistic forecasting is realized during the auditory perception of the speech by the interpreter, on the basis of which he makes the hypothesis about the development or completion of author’s speech. According to G. V. Chernov, the mechanism of probabilistic forecasting is the main psycholinguistic mechanism providing simultaneous interpretation [3, c.54]. In the process of speech perception the brain of simultaneous interpreter creates different possible endings of speaker’s communicative intentions.

However, there are still aspects of probabilistic forecasting mechanism that need to be clarified, in particular, what factors affect the formation of when semantic hypothesis in the mind of an interpreter. In our opinion, these are the reference points in the incoming speech material which play a significant role in prediction during interpretation.

The following are examples show how probabilistic forecasting mechanism is used in the process of simultaneous interpretation:

Spekaer: Today, I want to make the case for optimism — for confidence in our future. We can overcome these problems but we do need a change of direction. Huge deficits don’t just fall out of the sky.

Interpreter: Сегодняяхочуизложитьдоводыдляоптимизмаиуверенности. Мы можем решить эти проблемы, но мы не нуждаемся в изменении направления движения.

Here the interpreter has exactly predicted the ending of the set expression «overcome these problems». The interpreter could also translate this phrase as «преодолетьпреграды», «преодолетьтрудности», «преодолетьпрепятствия».

Speaker: Either way, it is Germany that dictates European policy because at times of crisis the creditors are in the driver’s seat.

Interpreter: В любом случае, Германия диктует Европейскую политику, потому что во времена кризиса кредиторы управляют ситуацией.

The interpreter successfully predicts the word «кризис» and an idiom «кредиторырулят», which the speaker uses to tell that during the crisis «creditors are at the driver’s seat». In the second case, the translator has chosen a more official synonym of the word «рулить» and uses «управлять».

Speaker: The boom period culminated with the Maastricht Treaty and the introduction of the euro.

Interpreter: Период подъема завершился заключением Маастрихтского договора ивведением евро.

In this sentence the interpreter predicted the end of the sentence due to his background knowledge about the history of the European Union which was established on the basis of the Maastricht Treaty, the result of which later was the introduction of a new currency — the euro.

Interpreters must possess the following professional skills necessary for the realization of probabilistic forecasting mechanism:

1)                 the ability to predict the content (beginning, middle, end) of the audiotext by title, keywords, semantic parts, fragments of messages, the plan, the thesis basing on professional experience and context;

2)                 the ability to memorize and retain in memory the perceived information, and then use it in the future professional activity;

3)                 the ability to associate the audio information with visual support in the form of charts, graphs, drawings, formulas, alphanumeric symbols, scripts, and (or) compensate the loss of audio information using these supports;

4)                 the ability to identify the most informative part of the scientific reports;

5)                 the ability to identify the theme and the main idea of ​​the audiotext;

6)                 the ability to establish a logical sequence of the audiotext;

7)                 the ability to re-encode the received information into a larger or smaller units of speech;

8)                 the ability to analyze the information on the basis of past experience, learning and professional context.

In conclusion, the interpreter must almost perfectly know the compatibility of lexical units of foreign and target languages. The creation of such associative links in the interpreter’s memory will dramatically increase the level of prediction and contribute to the implementation of the process of simultaneous interpretation.


1.    Фейгенберг И. М., Иванников В. А. «Вероятностное прогнозирование и преднастройка к движениям» М: МГУ 1978.

2.    Miller G. A., Selfridge J. A. Verbal context and the recall of meaningful material // American Journal of Psychology. V.63. 1951.

3.Чернов Г. В. Основы синхронного перевода. — М., 1987.


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